BRA W vs SPN Turning Point & Match Intelligence | BRA W vs SPN

BRA W vs SPN Match Intelligence And Turning Point Review

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Public model signal

W

Chasing side under pressure: required rate is above current scoring pace.

0%
Score124/6
Overs20.0 overs
Expected finalExpected final 124
BattingW
BowlingSPN
CRRCRR 6.20
RRRRRR 99.00
ResourcesResources 0.0%
Resource WPResource WP 0%
Par paceScore vs par pace -86.0
PressurePressure 188.10
How these metrics are calculated
  • CRR: current runs divided by completed overs. RRR: runs still required divided by overs remaining.
  • Expected final: resource-calculator estimate for the completed innings. Projected score: current-rate extrapolation.
  • Venue average: full-innings venue scoring baseline. Score vs par: current score minus resource-adjusted par.
  • Resources: model-calculated resources remaining. Resource WP: the structural win probability from that resource state.
  • Model probability: calibrated public win probability from the selected gender-aware T20 or ODI model.

Sources: the public-safe prediction payload and the match snapshot. Raw training features are not exposed.

Win Probability

Current model probability

W 0%BRA W 100%

The probability line shows how the model view changed during the match, keeping the first-innings batting side as the same reference across both innings.

StartInnings 220.0
Model probability by update 50% balance
Open prediction update log (259 updates)
Inn 1 · Update0/048%Expected 160
Inn 1 · 0.10/048%Expected 159
Inn 1 · 0.20/048%Expected 157
Inn 1 · 0.36/054%Expected 166
Inn 1 · 0.410/058%Expected 171
Inn 1 · 0.514/063%Expected 176
Inn 1 · 1.018/068%Expected 181
Inn 1 · 1.223/080%Expected 186
Inn 1 · 1.324/080%Expected 186
Inn 1 · 1.424/080%Expected 185
Inn 1 · 1.530/086%Expected 193
Inn 1 · 2.031/091%Expected 194
Inn 1 · 2.131/165%Expected 174
Inn 1 · 2.231/165%Expected 174
Inn 1 · 2.335/176%Expected 178
Inn 1 · 2.435/176%Expected 177
Inn 1 · 2.535/176%Expected 177
Inn 1 · 3.036/172%Expected 178
Inn 1 · 3.137/174%Expected 178
Inn 1 · 3.241/176%Expected 182
Inn 1 · 3.342/176%Expected 183
Inn 1 · 3.345/177%Expected 187
Inn 1 · 3.451/186%Expected 194
Inn 1 · 3.551/182%Expected 193
Inn 1 · 3.552/186%Expected 195
Inn 1 · 4.053/181%Expected 195
Inn 1 · 4.153/270%Expected 180
Inn 1 · 4.257/270%Expected 184
Inn 1 · 4.357/270%Expected 184
Inn 1 · 4.458/270%Expected 185
Inn 1 · 4.559/270%Expected 186
Inn 1 · 5.060/277%Expected 186
Inn 1 · 5.161/277%Expected 187
Inn 1 · 5.262/277%Expected 187
Inn 1 · 5.363/281%Expected 187
Inn 1 · 5.464/281%Expected 187
Inn 1 · 5.566/281%Expected 188
Inn 1 · 6.066/276%Expected 187
Inn 1 · 6.167/276%Expected 187
Inn 1 · 6.268/276%Expected 188
Inn 1 · 6.370/276%Expected 189
Inn 1 · 6.371/277%Expected 190
Inn 1 · 6.472/276%Expected 190
Inn 1 · 6.573/276%Expected 190
Inn 1 · 7.075/275%Expected 192
Inn 1 · 7.176/275%Expected 192
Inn 1 · 7.276/275%Expected 191
Inn 1 · 7.376/273%Expected 190
Inn 1 · 7.277/275%Expected 192
Inn 1 · 7.378/275%Expected 192
Inn 1 · 7.482/277%Expected 196
Inn 1 · 7.586/277%Expected 199
Inn 1 · 7.487/281%Expected 202
Inn 1 · 7.591/281%Expected 205
Inn 1 · 8.092/282%Expected 205
Inn 1 · 8.093/282%Expected 207
Inn 1 · 8.193/282%Expected 206
Inn 1 · 8.293/282%Expected 204
Inn 1 · 8.394/282%Expected 205
Inn 1 · 8.395/282%Expected 206
Inn 1 · 8.396/282%Expected 207
Inn 1 · 8.4100/282%Expected 211
Inn 1 · 8.5104/285%Expected 214
Inn 1 · 9.0108/284%Expected 218
Inn 1 · 9.1109/284%Expected 218
Inn 1 · 9.2109/284%Expected 217
Inn 1 · 9.3113/287%Expected 221
Inn 1 · 9.4114/287%Expected 221
Inn 1 · 9.5114/287%Expected 220
Inn 1 · 10.0115/286%Expected 220
Inn 1 · 10.1119/286%Expected 223
Inn 1 · 10.2119/286%Expected 221
Inn 1 · 10.3123/290%Expected 224
Inn 1 · 10.4123/386%Expected 212
Inn 1 · 10.5123/386%Expected 211
Inn 1 · 11.0129/386%Expected 216
Inn 1 · 11.1129/385%Expected 214
Inn 1 · 11.2130/386%Expected 214
Inn 1 · 11.3130/385%Expected 213
Inn 1 · 11.4131/386%Expected 212
Inn 1 · 11.5135/386%Expected 215
Inn 1 · 12.0139/388%Expected 218
Inn 1 · 12.1139/385%Expected 217
Inn 1 · 12.2143/388%Expected 220
Inn 1 · 12.3144/388%Expected 219
Inn 1 · 12.4146/391%Expected 220
Inn 1 · 12.5147/391%Expected 220
Inn 1 · 13.0148/391%Expected 219
Inn 1 · 13.1148/391%Expected 218
Inn 1 · 13.2149/391%Expected 217
Inn 1 · 13.3149/391%Expected 216
Inn 1 · 13.3154/391%Expected 221
Inn 1 · 13.3156/391%Expected 224
Inn 1 · 13.4160/391%Expected 227
Inn 1 · 13.4161/391%Expected 228
Inn 1 · 13.5161/491%Expected 218
Inn 1 · 14.0162/491%Expected 218
Inn 1 · 14.1162/490%Expected 217
Inn 1 · 14.2162/488%Expected 215
Inn 1 · 15.0168/487%Expected 217
Inn 1 · 15.1168/487%Expected 215
Inn 1 · 15.2169/487%Expected 215
Inn 1 · 15.3173/487%Expected 217
Inn 1 · 15.4173/487%Expected 216
Inn 1 · 15.5173/487%Expected 214
Inn 1 · 16.0173/489%Expected 212
Inn 1 · 16.1177/489%Expected 215
Inn 1 · 16.2179/491%Expected 215
Inn 1 · 16.3179/585%Expected 208
Inn 1 · 16.4179/585%Expected 207
Inn 1 · 16.5179/585%Expected 206
Inn 1 · 17.0179/676%Expected 199
Inn 1 · 17.1183/679%Expected 202
Inn 1 · 17.2183/776%Expected 195
Inn 1 · 17.3183/776%Expected 195
Inn 1 · 17.4187/776%Expected 198
Inn 1 · 17.5188/776%Expected 198
Inn 1 · 17.5189/776%Expected 199
Inn 1 · 18.0189/872%Expected 194
Inn 1 · 18.1191/873%Expected 195
Inn 1 · 18.2195/873%Expected 199
Inn 1 · 18.3195/972%Expected 195
Inn 1 · 18.3196/972%Expected 196
Inn 1 · 18.4197/972%Expected 197
Inn 1 · 18.5201/973%Expected 201
Inn 1 · 19.0203/977%Expected 203
Inn 1 · 19.1204/977%Expected 203
Inn 1 · 19.2204/977%Expected 203
Inn 1 · 19.3210/979%Expected 208
Inn 1 · 19.4210/1077%Expected 210
Inn 2 · Update0/023%Expected 160
Inn 2 · 0.10/022%Expected 159
Inn 2 · 0.20/021%Expected 157
Inn 2 · 0.21/022%Expected 159
Inn 2 · 0.31/020%Expected 158
Inn 2 · 0.41/019%Expected 156
Inn 2 · 0.55/021%Expected 161
Inn 2 · 1.06/020%Expected 162
Inn 2 · 1.16/117%Expected 155
Inn 2 · 1.210/119%Expected 157
Inn 2 · 1.310/118%Expected 156
Inn 2 · 1.410/116%Expected 156
Inn 2 · 1.510/115%Expected 155
Inn 2 · 2.011/115%Expected 155
Inn 2 · 2.112/114%Expected 155
Inn 2 · 2.312/112%Expected 153
Inn 2 · 2.413/112%Expected 153
Inn 2 · 2.513/111%Expected 152
Inn 2 · 3.013/110%Expected 151
Inn 2 · 3.114/110%Expected 151
Inn 2 · 3.214/19%Expected 150
Inn 2 · 3.315/19%Expected 150
Inn 2 · 3.416/18%Expected 150
Inn 2 · 3.517/18%Expected 151
Inn 2 · 4.021/19%Expected 155
Inn 2 · 4.121/18%Expected 154
Inn 2 · 4.222/18%Expected 154
Inn 2 · 4.326/18%Expected 158
Inn 2 · 4.427/18%Expected 159
Inn 2 · 4.527/17%Expected 158
Inn 2 · 5.027/17%Expected 156
Inn 2 · 5.131/17%Expected 160
Inn 2 · 5.235/18%Expected 164
Inn 2 · 5.336/18%Expected 164
Inn 2 · 5.437/17%Expected 164
Inn 2 · 5.537/17%Expected 163
Inn 2 · 6.041/17%Expected 167
Inn 2 · 6.145/18%Expected 171
Inn 2 · 6.245/17%Expected 169
Inn 2 · 6.345/16%Expected 168
Inn 2 · 6.446/16%Expected 168
Inn 2 · 6.547/16%Expected 168
Inn 2 · 7.047/15%Expected 166
Inn 2 · 7.148/15%Expected 166
Inn 2 · 7.249/14%Expected 166
Inn 2 · 7.350/14%Expected 166
Inn 2 · 7.450/14%Expected 165
Inn 2 · 7.550/13%Expected 163
Inn 2 · 8.050/13%Expected 162
Inn 2 · 8.151/13%Expected 162
Inn 2 · 8.251/12%Expected 160
Inn 2 · 8.351/12%Expected 159
Inn 2 · 8.451/12%Expected 157
Inn 2 · 8.552/11%Expected 157
Inn 2 · 9.053/11%Expected 157
Inn 2 · 9.153/11%Expected 156
Inn 2 · 9.257/11%Expected 160
Inn 2 · 9.358/11%Expected 160
Inn 2 · 9.458/11%Expected 158
Inn 2 · 10.058/11%Expected 156
Inn 2 · 9.558/11%Expected 157
Inn 2 · 10.058/21%Expected 151
Inn 2 · 10.162/21%Expected 154
Inn 2 · 10.266/21%Expected 157
Inn 2 · 10.370/21%Expected 160
Inn 2 · 10.471/21%Expected 160
Inn 2 · 10.571/21%Expected 158
Inn 2 · 11.071/20%Expected 157
Inn 2 · 11.171/20%Expected 155
Inn 2 · 11.272/20%Expected 155
Inn 2 · 11.372/20%Expected 153
Inn 2 · 11.473/20%Expected 153
Inn 2 · 11.574/20%Expected 152
Inn 2 · 12.074/20%Expected 151
Inn 2 · 12.178/20%Expected 154
Inn 2 · 12.278/30%Expected 148
Inn 2 · 12.379/30%Expected 147
Inn 2 · 12.480/30%Expected 147
Inn 2 · 12.581/30%Expected 147
Inn 2 · 13.082/30%Expected 146
Inn 2 · 13.186/30%Expected 149
Inn 2 · 13.390/30%Expected 151
Inn 2 · 13.286/30%Expected 148
Inn 2 · 13.490/40%Expected 145
Inn 2 · 13.590/40%Expected 144
Inn 2 · 14.094/40%Expected 147
Inn 2 · 14.194/40%Expected 145
Inn 2 · 14.294/40%Expected 144
Inn 2 · 14.394/40%Expected 143
Inn 2 · 14.397/40%Expected 146
Inn 2 · 14.398/40%Expected 147
Inn 2 · 14.498/50%Expected 141
Inn 2 · 14.4100/40%Expected 148
Inn 2 · 14.5100/40%Expected 147
Inn 2 · 15.0100/40%Expected 145
Inn 2 · 15.1104/40%Expected 148
Inn 2 · 15.2105/40%Expected 148
Inn 2 · 15.2106/40%Expected 149
Inn 2 · 15.3106/40%Expected 147
Inn 2 · 15.4106/40%Expected 146
Inn 2 · 15.5110/40%Expected 148
Inn 2 · 16.0111/40%Expected 148
Inn 2 · 16.1111/40%Expected 146
Inn 2 · 16.2111/40%Expected 145
Inn 2 · 16.2112/40%Expected 146
Inn 2 · 16.3112/40%Expected 144
Inn 2 · 16.4113/40%Expected 144
Inn 2 · 16.4114/40%Expected 145
Inn 2 · 16.5114/40%Expected 143
Inn 2 · 17.0114/50%Expected 139
Inn 2 · 17.0115/50%Expected 140
Inn 2 · 17.2115/50%Expected 137
Inn 2 · 17.3115/50%Expected 136
Inn 2 · 17.4115/60%Expected 132
Inn 2 · 17.5115/60%Expected 131
Inn 2 · 18.0115/60%Expected 130
Inn 2 · 18.0114/60%Expected 129
Inn 2 · 18.1115/60%Expected 129
Inn 2 · 18.2116/60%Expected 128
Inn 2 · 18.4116/60%Expected 126
Inn 2 · 18.5117/60%Expected 126
Inn 2 · 19.0117/60%Expected 125
Inn 2 · 19.1121/60%Expected 128
Inn 2 · 19.2121/60%Expected 127
Inn 2 · 19.3121/60%Expected 126
Inn 2 · 19.4122/60%Expected 126
Inn 2 · 19.5124/60%Expected 127
Inn 2 · 19.5123/60%Expected 126
Inn 2 · 20.0124/60%Expected 124

Expected finish

Expected final versus venue

Expected final comes from the model resource calculator; venue average is the full-innings venue scoring baseline.

Expected finalExpected final 124
Venue averageVenue average 169.0

Resource and pace

What the innings has left

Par pace compares current score with resource-adjusted par. CRR is runs per over; RRR is the required chase rate.

Resources remainingResources 0.0%
CRR / RRRCRR 6.20 · RRR 99.00

Pressure

Why the state feels difficult

The required rate is elevated, so the current resource position is carrying meaningful chase pressure.

Momentum

How the match is moving

Recent updates have moved toward the bowling side. The timeline shows the direction rather than a certainty.

Confidence

How strongly to read the signal

The direction is available, but confidence is reduced because this model update is older than the freshness window.

Model factors

Why the signal leans this way

  • Expected final 124, 45 below the venue average.
  • Current score is 86 runs below resource-adjusted par.
  • Chase pressure is 99 required runs per over from here.

These are public-safe factors from the current match state; raw training features remain private.

Match briefing

Context beyond the score

Venue behaviourTracking below the venue baseline.

Toss impactToss impact will appear when toss context is available.

Expected score124

Turning point19.3 · 121/6 · +0%

Latest swing0% to 0%

This public briefing reuses the explanation-pack pattern from the intelligence/video workflow. Player picks, market replay, and operator-only fields stay excluded.

Win probability

W

0%

Chasing side under pressure: required rate is above current scoring pace.

What changed

Latest visible shift

+0% became the clearest public signal for where control moved in the final result.

Why it changed

Current explanation

Expected final 124, 45 below the venue average.

What matters next

Next watchpoint

Use the scorecard and commentary archive to verify where the match flipped, then move to the next eligible match intelligence page instead of stopping at the result.

Keep the signal

Get the next match update

Follow the match from score context to model change without losing the live match page.