BUL vs ESP Live Win Probability & Match Intelligence | BUL vs ESP

BUL vs ESP Live Match Intelligence

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Public model signal

BUL

BUL are tracking 117 runs below par.

5%
Score58-9
Overs12.5 overs
Expected finalExpected final 100
Run-rate viewRun-rate projection 90
BattingBUL
BowlingESP
CRRCRR 4.52
ResourcesResources 4.7%
Resource WPResource WP 7%
Par paceScore vs par pace -117.5
PressurePressure 4.50
How these metrics are calculated
  • CRR: current runs divided by completed overs. RRR: runs still required divided by overs remaining.
  • Expected final: resource-calculator estimate for the completed innings. Projected score: current-rate extrapolation.
  • Venue average: full-innings venue scoring baseline. Score vs par: current score minus resource-adjusted par.
  • Resources: model-calculated resources remaining. Resource WP: the structural win probability from that resource state.
  • Model probability: calibrated public win probability from the selected gender-aware T20 or ODI model.

Sources: the public-safe prediction payload and the match snapshot. Raw training features are not exposed.

Win Probability

Current model probability

BUL 5%ESP 95%

The probability line shows how the model view changed during the match.

StartInnings 112.5
Model probability by update 50% balance
Open prediction update log (84 updates)
Inn 1 · Update0/049%Expected 160
Inn 1 · 0.11/061%Expected 160
Inn 1 · 0.22/061%Expected 161
Inn 1 · 0.32/054%Expected 159
Inn 1 · 0.42/138%Expected 156
Inn 1 · 0.52/137%Expected 155
Inn 1 · 1.03/137%Expected 154
Inn 1 · 1.15/141%Expected 154
Inn 1 · 1.25/137%Expected 153
Inn 1 · 1.37/141%Expected 154
Inn 1 · 1.47/137%Expected 153
Inn 1 · 1.57/137%Expected 152
Inn 1 · 2.07/132%Expected 151
Inn 1 · 2.17/219%Expected 147
Inn 1 · 2.08/137%Expected 152
Inn 1 · 2.19/137%Expected 152
Inn 1 · 2.210/141%Expected 152
Inn 1 · 2.310/136%Expected 151
Inn 1 · 2.410/132%Expected 150
Inn 1 · 2.512/137%Expected 151
Inn 1 · 3.013/138%Expected 151
Inn 1 · 3.217/143%Expected 154
Inn 1 · 3.323/150%Expected 160
Inn 1 · 3.423/150%Expected 159
Inn 1 · 3.523/150%Expected 158
Inn 1 · 4.029/161%Expected 165
Inn 1 · 4.130/161%Expected 165
Inn 1 · 4.230/151%Expected 164
Inn 1 · 4.336/164%Expected 171
Inn 1 · 4.442/170%Expected 178
Inn 1 · 4.440/169%Expected 176
Inn 1 · 4.541/169%Expected 176
Inn 1 · 5.041/168%Expected 175
Inn 1 · 5.142/168%Expected 175
Inn 1 · 5.242/247%Expected 164
Inn 1 · 5.344/247%Expected 166
Inn 1 · 5.345/250%Expected 167
Inn 1 · 5.445/250%Expected 166
Inn 1 · 5.545/338%Expected 156
Inn 1 · 6.045/344%Expected 155
Inn 1 · 6.145/342%Expected 154
Inn 1 · 6.246/342%Expected 154
Inn 1 · 6.346/342%Expected 153
Inn 1 · 6.447/342%Expected 153
Inn 1 · 6.548/342%Expected 153
Inn 1 · 7.049/339%Expected 153
Inn 1 · 7.149/339%Expected 152
Inn 1 · 7.249/339%Expected 152
Inn 1 · 7.349/339%Expected 151
Inn 1 · 7.450/339%Expected 151
Inn 1 · 7.451/339%Expected 152
Inn 1 · 7.551/339%Expected 151
Inn 1 · 7.552/339%Expected 152
Inn 1 · 8.053/339%Expected 152
Inn 1 · 8.154/342%Expected 152
Inn 1 · 8.255/342%Expected 152
Inn 1 · 8.355/438%Expected 144
Inn 1 · 8.455/434%Expected 143
Inn 1 · 8.555/434%Expected 142
Inn 1 · 9.056/432%Expected 142
Inn 1 · 9.156/428%Expected 141
Inn 1 · 9.256/426%Expected 140
Inn 1 · 9.356/425%Expected 140
Inn 1 · 9.456/517%Expected 132
Inn 1 · 9.556/517%Expected 131
Inn 1 · 10.056/516%Expected 131
Inn 1 · 10.156/516%Expected 130
Inn 1 · 10.257/519%Expected 129
Inn 1 · 10.358/516%Expected 129
Inn 1 · 10.357/612%Expected 122
Inn 1 · 10.458/612%Expected 122
Inn 1 · 10.558/79%Expected 116
Inn 1 · 11.058/77%Expected 115
Inn 1 · 11.158/77%Expected 114
Inn 1 · 11.258/83%Expected 108
Inn 1 · 11.358/83%Expected 107
Inn 1 · 11.458/83%Expected 106
Inn 1 · 11.558/83%Expected 105
Inn 1 · 12.058/83%Expected 104
Inn 1 · 12.158/83%Expected 104
Inn 1 · 12.258/83%Expected 103
Inn 1 · 12.358/83%Expected 102
Inn 1 · 12.458/83%Expected 101
Inn 1 · 12.558/92%Expected 100

Expected finish

Expected final versus venue

Expected final comes from the model resource calculator; venue average is the full-innings venue scoring baseline.

Expected finalExpected final 100
Venue averageVenue average 182.0

Resource and pace

What the innings has left

Par pace compares current score with resource-adjusted par. CRR is runs per over; RRR is the required chase rate.

Resources remainingResources 4.7%
CRR / RRRCRR 4.52 · RRR 0.00

Pressure

Why the state feels difficult

The model sees measurable pressure against the current resource position.

Momentum

How the match is moving

Recent updates have moved toward the bowling side. The timeline shows the direction rather than a certainty.

Confidence

How strongly to read the signal

The current model lean is pronounced, while the timeline and freshness label show why it should not be read as certainty.

Model factors

Why the signal leans this way

  • Expected final 100, 82 below the venue average.
  • Current score is 117.5 runs below resource-adjusted par.
  • Current scoring rate is 4.5 runs per over.

These are public-safe factors from the current match state; raw training features remain private.

Match briefing

Context beyond the score

Venue behaviourTracking below the venue baseline.

Toss impactToss impact will appear when toss context is available.

Expected score100

Turning point12.1 · 58/8 · +0%

Latest swing3% to 2%

This public briefing reuses the explanation-pack pattern from the intelligence/video workflow. Player picks, market replay, and operator-only fields stay excluded.

Win probability

BUL

5%

BUL are tracking 117 runs below par.

What changed

Latest visible shift

+0%

Why it changed

Current explanation

Expected final 100, 82 below the venue average.

What matters next

Next watchpoint

Use this route for deeper probability and match-state interpretation while keeping the canonical match page as the score-first live entry point.

Keep the signal

Get probability updates

Follow the match from score context to model change without losing the live match page.