Win Probability
Current model probability
LUX 99%BUL 1%
The probability line shows how the model view changed during the match.
StartInnings 1Now
The probability timeline will appear after the first live model updates.
BUL vs LUX Live Match Intelligence
Powered by Crickzen Match Model
Public model signal
LUX
LUX is currently ahead on the available win-probability signal. The goal of this route is to connect that lean to visible score pressure and public-safe reasons.
Score97-4
Overs14 overs
Expected finalAwaiting model projection
BattingLUX
How these metrics are calculated
- CRR: current runs divided by completed overs. RRR: runs still required divided by overs remaining.
- Expected final: resource-calculator estimate for the completed innings. Projected score: current-rate extrapolation.
- Venue average: full-innings venue scoring baseline. Score vs par: current score minus resource-adjusted par.
- Resources: model-calculated resources remaining. Resource WP: the structural win probability from that resource state.
- Model probability: calibrated public win probability from the selected gender-aware T20 or ODI model.
Sources: the public-safe prediction payload and the match snapshot. Raw training features are not exposed.
Expected finish
Expected final versus venue
Expected final comes from the model resource calculator; venue average is the full-innings venue scoring baseline.
Expected-final context will appear when the model snapshot is ready.
Resource and pace
What the innings has left
Par pace compares current score with resource-adjusted par. CRR is runs per over; RRR is the required chase rate.
Pressure
Why the state feels difficult
Pressure commentary will appear when the model exposes a live resource snapshot.
Momentum
How the match is moving
Momentum will become clearer after more probability updates accumulate.
Confidence
How strongly to read the signal
The current model lean is pronounced, while the timeline and freshness label show why it should not be read as certainty.
Win probability
LUX
99%
LUX is currently ahead on the available win-probability signal. The goal of this route is to connect that lean to visible score pressure and public-safe reasons.
What changed
Latest visible shift
The latest public update points to this shift: End of over 13: Oscar Duff 2-29(4.0) | Vikram Vijh & William Cope at crease | Balls: 1.1.1.1.4.1
Why it changed
Current explanation
The visible score pressure and innings state support the current lean, even though the explanation feed is still lighter than the final contract target.
What matters next
Next watchpoint
Use this route for deeper probability and match-state interpretation while keeping the canonical match page as the score-first live entry point.
Keep the signal
Get probability updates
Follow the match from score context to model change without losing the live match page.