LS vs MIL Live Win Probability & Match Intelligence | LS vs MIL

LS vs MIL Live Match Intelligence

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Public model signal

LS

Chasing side is still within the model's scoring range.

100%
Score165/3
Overs17.4 overs
Expected finalExpected final 187
BattingLS
BowlingMIL
CRRCRR 9.27
RRRRRR 0.00
ResourcesResources 14.5%
Resource WPResource WP 100%
Par paceScore vs par pace 13.6
PressurePressure 0.00
How these metrics are calculated
  • CRR: current runs divided by completed overs. RRR: runs still required divided by overs remaining.
  • Expected final: resource-calculator estimate for the completed innings. Projected score: current-rate extrapolation.
  • Venue average: full-innings venue scoring baseline. Score vs par: current score minus resource-adjusted par.
  • Resources: model-calculated resources remaining. Resource WP: the structural win probability from that resource state.
  • Model probability: calibrated public win probability from the selected gender-aware T20 or ODI model.

Sources: the public-safe prediction payload and the match snapshot. Raw training features are not exposed.

Win Probability

Current model probability

LS 100%MIL 0%

The probability line shows how the model view changed during the match, keeping the first-innings batting side as the same reference across both innings.

StartInnings 217.4
Model probability by update 50% balance
Open prediction update log (212 updates)
Inn 1 · Update0/057%Expected 139
Inn 1 · 0.10/055%Expected 138
Inn 1 · 0.24/055%Expected 143
Inn 1 · 0.22/057%Expected 140
Inn 1 · 0.36/055%Expected 145
Inn 1 · 0.46/055%Expected 143
Inn 1 · 1.06/050%Expected 142
Inn 1 · 1.16/050%Expected 141
Inn 1 · 1.27/047%Expected 141
Inn 1 · 1.37/047%Expected 139
Inn 1 · 1.47/047%Expected 138
Inn 1 · 2.07/046%Expected 137
Inn 1 · 2.17/046%Expected 135
Inn 1 · 2.27/046%Expected 134
Inn 1 · 2.39/046%Expected 136
Inn 1 · 2.310/046%Expected 137
Inn 1 · 2.311/046%Expected 139
Inn 1 · 2.411/046%Expected 138
Inn 1 · 3.012/052%Expected 138
Inn 1 · 3.116/052%Expected 143
Inn 1 · 3.216/052%Expected 141
Inn 1 · 3.316/052%Expected 140
Inn 1 · 3.417/052%Expected 140
Inn 1 · 4.017/045%Expected 139
Inn 1 · 4.118/045%Expected 139
Inn 1 · 4.222/059%Expected 144
Inn 1 · 4.323/059%Expected 144
Inn 1 · 4.427/062%Expected 149
Inn 1 · 5.028/050%Expected 149
Inn 1 · 5.129/050%Expected 149
Inn 1 · 5.230/050%Expected 149
Inn 1 · 5.233/072%Expected 153
Inn 1 · 5.334/072%Expected 153
Inn 1 · 5.438/072%Expected 157
Inn 1 · 6.039/069%Expected 157
Inn 1 · 6.140/069%Expected 156
Inn 1 · 6.241/069%Expected 156
Inn 1 · 6.345/069%Expected 160
Inn 1 · 6.451/074%Expected 167
Inn 1 · 7.052/075%Expected 166
Inn 1 · 7.152/069%Expected 165
Inn 1 · 7.256/075%Expected 169
Inn 1 · 7.356/075%Expected 167
Inn 1 · 7.462/075%Expected 173
Inn 1 · 8.063/074%Expected 173
Inn 1 · 8.163/074%Expected 171
Inn 1 · 8.265/074%Expected 172
Inn 1 · 8.371/074%Expected 179
Inn 1 · 8.472/074%Expected 178
Inn 1 · 9.073/075%Expected 178
Inn 1 · 9.074/075%Expected 179
Inn 1 · 9.176/075%Expected 180
Inn 1 · 9.178/075%Expected 183
Inn 1 · 9.278/075%Expected 181
Inn 1 · 9.379/075%Expected 181
Inn 1 · 9.380/075%Expected 182
Inn 1 · 9.481/075%Expected 182
Inn 1 · 10.082/078%Expected 182
Inn 1 · 10.186/078%Expected 185
Inn 1 · 10.184/078%Expected 182
Inn 1 · 10.185/078%Expected 183
Inn 1 · 10.285/078%Expected 181
Inn 1 · 10.385/078%Expected 178
Inn 1 · 10.485/078%Expected 176
Inn 1 · 11.085/080%Expected 174
Inn 1 · 11.185/080%Expected 171
Inn 1 · 11.289/080%Expected 174
Inn 1 · 11.389/080%Expected 172
Inn 1 · 11.390/080%Expected 173
Inn 1 · 11.490/080%Expected 171
Inn 1 · 12.090/077%Expected 169
Inn 1 · 12.191/077%Expected 168
Inn 1 · 12.291/168%Expected 163
Inn 1 · 12.292/168%Expected 164
Inn 1 · 12.392/168%Expected 162
Inn 1 · 12.493/168%Expected 161
Inn 1 · 13.097/175%Expected 164
Inn 1 · 13.197/175%Expected 162
Inn 1 · 13.197/275%Expected 159
Inn 1 · 13.298/271%Expected 158
Inn 1 · 13.3100/275%Expected 159
Inn 1 · 13.4100/359%Expected 153
Inn 1 · 14.0104/366%Expected 156
Inn 1 · 14.1104/366%Expected 154
Inn 1 · 14.2105/366%Expected 154
Inn 1 · 14.3106/366%Expected 154
Inn 1 · 14.4107/366%Expected 153
Inn 1 · 15.0113/369%Expected 158
Inn 1 · 15.1113/369%Expected 156
Inn 1 · 15.2114/369%Expected 156
Inn 1 · 15.3115/369%Expected 155
Inn 1 · 15.4116/369%Expected 154
Inn 1 · 16.0118/370%Expected 154
Inn 1 · 16.1118/369%Expected 153
Inn 1 · 16.0119/370%Expected 155
Inn 1 · 16.1118/455%Expected 149
Inn 1 · 16.2122/461%Expected 152
Inn 1 · 16.3122/455%Expected 150
Inn 1 · 16.4124/455%Expected 151
Inn 1 · 17.0125/460%Expected 150
Inn 1 · 17.1129/470%Expected 153
Inn 1 · 17.2129/470%Expected 151
Inn 1 · 17.3131/470%Expected 151
Inn 1 · 17.3132/470%Expected 152
Inn 1 · 17.4132/470%Expected 151
Inn 1 · 18.0138/471%Expected 155
Inn 1 · 18.1139/471%Expected 155
Inn 1 · 18.1140/471%Expected 156
Inn 1 · 18.2141/471%Expected 155
Inn 1 · 18.3142/471%Expected 155
Inn 1 · 18.4148/471%Expected 159
Inn 1 · 19.0148/473%Expected 158
Inn 1 · 19.1152/473%Expected 160
Inn 1 · 19.2158/473%Expected 163
Inn 1 · 19.3158/473%Expected 161
Inn 1 · 19.4164/484%Expected 165
Inn 1 · 20.0164/576%Expected 164
Inn 2 · 20.0164/585%Expected 164
Inn 2 · Update0/024%Expected 139
Inn 2 · 0.14/025%Expected 144
Inn 2 · 0.24/026%Expected 143
Inn 2 · 0.35/027%Expected 143
Inn 2 · 0.49/028%Expected 148
Inn 2 · 1.013/028%Expected 153
Inn 2 · 1.113/029%Expected 152
Inn 2 · 1.217/030%Expected 157
Inn 2 · 1.219/030%Expected 160
Inn 2 · 1.320/031%Expected 160
Inn 2 · 1.426/038%Expected 169
Inn 2 · 2.027/036%Expected 169
Inn 2 · 2.127/033%Expected 167
Inn 2 · 2.227/034%Expected 166
Inn 2 · 2.331/035%Expected 171
Inn 2 · 2.437/041%Expected 179
Inn 2 · 3.041/034%Expected 184
Inn 2 · 3.147/045%Expected 192
Inn 2 · 3.247/046%Expected 191
Inn 2 · 3.353/057%Expected 199
Inn 2 · 3.453/049%Expected 198
Inn 2 · 4.053/041%Expected 196
Inn 2 · 4.153/041%Expected 195
Inn 2 · 4.257/054%Expected 200
Inn 2 · 4.357/043%Expected 199
Inn 2 · 4.461/062%Expected 204
Inn 2 · 5.061/066%Expected 202
Inn 2 · 5.162/067%Expected 201
Inn 2 · 5.263/069%Expected 200
Inn 2 · 5.363/146%Expected 185
Inn 2 · 5.463/147%Expected 183
Inn 2 · 6.067/147%Expected 187
Inn 2 · 6.168/147%Expected 187
Inn 2 · 6.269/147%Expected 187
Inn 2 · 6.371/147%Expected 188
Inn 2 · 6.475/153%Expected 191
Inn 2 · 7.075/148%Expected 190
Inn 2 · 7.181/175%Expected 196
Inn 2 · 7.281/175%Expected 195
Inn 2 · 7.383/175%Expected 196
Inn 2 · 7.489/175%Expected 202
Inn 2 · 8.095/1100%Expected 208
Inn 2 · 8.195/190%Expected 207
Inn 2 · 8.296/189%Expected 207
Inn 2 · 8.397/189%Expected 207
Inn 2 · 8.398/192%Expected 208
Inn 2 · 8.499/192%Expected 208
Inn 2 · 9.0100/190%Expected 207
Inn 2 · 9.1100/190%Expected 206
Inn 2 · 9.2100/190%Expected 204
Inn 2 · 9.3101/190%Expected 204
Inn 2 · 9.4101/276%Expected 194
Inn 2 · 10.0102/277%Expected 194
Inn 2 · 10.1103/277%Expected 193
Inn 2 · 10.2103/277%Expected 191
Inn 2 · 10.3104/277%Expected 191
Inn 2 · 10.4105/277%Expected 190
Inn 2 · 11.0105/275%Expected 188
Inn 2 · 11.1109/275%Expected 191
Inn 2 · 11.2110/275%Expected 190
Inn 2 · 11.3110/275%Expected 188
Inn 2 · 11.4114/275%Expected 191
Inn 2 · 12.0114/289%Expected 189
Inn 2 · 12.1114/278%Expected 187
Inn 2 · 12.2116/289%Expected 188
Inn 2 · 12.3116/278%Expected 186
Inn 2 · 12.4116/365%Expected 178
Inn 2 · 13.0116/378%Expected 177
Inn 2 · 13.1117/378%Expected 176
Inn 2 · 13.1118/378%Expected 177
Inn 2 · 13.2122/379%Expected 180
Inn 2 · 13.3128/390%Expected 185
Inn 2 · 13.4129/390%Expected 185
Inn 2 · 14.0129/386%Expected 183
Inn 2 · 14.1129/386%Expected 182
Inn 2 · 14.2129/386%Expected 180
Inn 2 · 14.3133/386%Expected 183
Inn 2 · 14.4133/386%Expected 182
Inn 2 · 15.0133/388%Expected 180
Inn 2 · 15.1134/382%Expected 179
Inn 2 · 15.2135/382%Expected 178
Inn 2 · 15.3136/382%Expected 178
Inn 2 · 15.4137/382%Expected 177
Inn 2 · 16.0137/356%Expected 175
Inn 2 · 16.1138/356%Expected 174
Inn 2 · 16.2142/390%Expected 176
Inn 2 · 16.2144/390%Expected 178
Inn 2 · 16.3150/390%Expected 183
Inn 2 · 16.4151/390%Expected 182
Inn 2 · 17.0155/399%Expected 184
Inn 2 · 17.1156/399%Expected 183
Inn 2 · 17.2160/399%Expected 186
Inn 2 · 17.3161/399%Expected 185
Inn 2 · 17.4165/3100%Expected 187

Expected finish

Expected final versus venue

Expected final comes from the model resource calculator; venue average is the full-innings venue scoring baseline.

Expected finalExpected final 187
Venue averageVenue average 139.4

Resource and pace

What the innings has left

Par pace compares current score with resource-adjusted par. CRR is runs per over; RRR is the required chase rate.

Resources remainingResources 14.5%
CRR / RRRCRR 9.27 · RRR 0.00

Pressure

Why the state feels difficult

The current resource position is broadly balanced.

Momentum

How the match is moving

Recent updates have moved toward the batting side. The timeline shows the direction rather than a certainty.

Confidence

How strongly to read the signal

The current model lean is pronounced, while the timeline and freshness label show why it should not be read as certainty.

Model factors

Why the signal leans this way

  • Expected final 187, 47.6 above the venue average.
  • Current score is 13.6 runs above resource-adjusted par.
  • Current scoring rate is 9.3 runs per over.

These are public-safe factors from the current match state; raw training features remain private.

Match briefing

Context beyond the score

Venue behaviourTracking above the venue baseline.

Toss impactToss impact will appear when toss context is available.

Expected score187

Turning point17.4 · 165/3 · +1%

Latest swing99% to 100%

This public briefing reuses the explanation-pack pattern from the intelligence/video workflow. Player picks, market replay, and operator-only fields stay excluded.

Win probability

LS

100%

Chasing side is still within the model's scoring range.

What changed

Latest visible shift

+9%

Why it changed

Current explanation

Expected final 187, 47.6 above the venue average.

What matters next

Next watchpoint

Use this route for deeper probability and match-state interpretation while keeping the canonical match page as the score-first live entry point.

Keep the signal

Get probability updates

Follow the match from score context to model change without losing the live match page.